The National Football League schedule makers rolled seven and elevens with their holiday matchups this year. Yesterday, they featured three games with intriguing teams and playoff implications and tonight, I don’t think they could have even hoped for their first Black Friday afternoon contest would feature a pair of first place teams. The host team today is the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles and their competition is the Chicago Bears..
Oh, the league could have imagined that the Eagles might be heading up their NFC East Division coming into the Thanksgiving weekend, but the Bears towering over the likes of the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings … as the farmer in the movie The Account said in one scene, “In your dreams.”
But here we are, a dozen weeks into the 2025 campaign and the Chicago Bears, who have finished last in their division the previous three seasons, are now perched at the top of the talented quartet of NFC East teams. Tonight, perhaps not surprisingly given the generous seven point spread, the Bears are getting an equal amount of the wagering action as the homestanding defending champs.
The Eagles lead their division and hadn’t had any NFC East competition pushing their efforts until the Dallas Cowboys caught fire with three consecutive wins to pull within shouting distance of Nick Sirianni’s Eagles. With their victory over the Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, the Cowboys are now just two games back in their division race. Until the Cowboys won their last three games the Eagles were running away with this division like Secretariat did in the Belmont Stakes in the last leg of his triple crown win.
There is a problem with a team that has a huge bulge in their division race, they are not challenged to get better. It is worth noting that most Super Bowl winners emerge from a contested division race … My theory is that the competition prepares them for the playoff battles much better than a cakewalk into the postseason.
Do the Eagles hear the Cowboys footsteps now?
We don’t need to wonder if the Bears know they are in a battle to the end in their quest to stay ahead of the Packers and Lions in the NFC North. The Vikings, by the way, who won 14 games last year behind quarterback Sam Darnold, are locked in last place with a 4 and 7 season record and a game on Sunday against their old quarterback. After leading the Vikings to their second most wins for a season in franchise history last year, Darnold may do the same for the Seahawks this season. Seattle currently is in a three-way battle with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers and bring an 8 and 3 record into play this week.
Back to the Bears, who today with a victory would maintain sole possession of first place, a loss drops them a half-game back of the Packers.
Are the Bears the kind of team that can stay in front of their talented competition, or more likely to fade?
Evidence for either scenario can be sighted not only by their pure win/loss record but how they achieved eight wins in 11 decisions. After opening with a narrow loss to the Vikings and a blowout defeat in Detroit, the Bears began their trek to first place with a lopsided win over the Cowboys and then, which can only be described as fortuitous outcomes, notched a series of narrow victories only interrupted by a single loss, that against the Baltimore Ravens five weeks ago.
After their initial win of the season against Dallas in Week Three, the Bears got wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders, two teams that have combined for only five wins in 22 games this season. Both of those victories were by a single point. We didn’t yet have any evidence to think first-year Head Coach Ben Johnson had a potential division winner.
After their loss to the Ravens, the Bears pulled out a narrow last second victory over the Cincinnati Bengals and a four-point and then two-point win the following two weeks against the New York Giants and Vikings. Last week, against Pittsburgh, the Bears victory margin was a field goal over the Steelers at Soldier Field.
Add it all up, and Chicago has built their first place 8-3 mark while being outscored by their opponents on the season by three points.
The big line for this afternoon's game has generated plenty of action on the visitor, and the Eagles recent hits and misses has some questioning their chances to repeat as champions. In other words, the Bears are at the top of their possibilities, and the Eagles are challenged to get their mojo back.
I like the champ’s chances.
Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over Chicago Bears