How bad are the Las Vegas Raiders?
How good are the Denver Broncos?
Who has the edge when these two AFC West Division opponents clash on Sunday in SinCity?
Yes, the Denver Broncos are two games up in their division over the Los Angeles Chargers and own the second best record in all of football with ten wins against only two losses. But that might be only half the story.
The other half is not as positive for the Sean Payton coached Broncos.
Their top-rated defense is the reason they are winning, and that strong D has led Payton and his coaches to design offensive game plans that minimize risk. They don’t want quarterback Bo Nix making mistakes with turnovers that put undue pressure on their strength. The team has figured out that playing inside the lines, perhaps the most boring football in the league, and grinding out close wins is the way to go.
How has that worked out for the people backing Denver with their wagers?
Not very well.
While the Broncos match the fewest losses in the league with two, their point spread record is on the losing end. Denver’s record against the point spread is five and seven, and their losses come in the most interesting of places, against the weakest teams they have played.
Among the Broncos five point spread wins are conquests over the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. Included in their point spread losses are decisions against the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. Those five teams that have beaten the Broncos against the spread have a combined record in 2025 of 11 wins and 50 losses. And yet, they are 5-0 versus the Broncos with the line.
Tomorrow, the Broncos are in Vegas to meet a Raiders team they edged at home four weeks ago by a field goal, 10-7. The Broncos were favored by nine points in that game. This week, at Allegiant Stadium, the Broncos are favored by seven points and bettors are descending on the casinos like locusts to get their money down on Denver giving the touchdown on the line.
I suggest you don’t join the crowd.
Qoxhi Picks: Las Vegas Raiders (+7) over Denver Broncos