The Denver Broncos have arguably the best defense in the National Football League and a first place perch in the AFC West Division two games over the second place Los Angeles Chargers. More good news for the Broncos this season is the apparent decline of the team that has won the AFC West nine straight years, the Kansas City Chiefs.
On Thanksgiving, the Chiefs lost to the Dallas Cowboys to drop their record to six wins and six losses, 3½ games back of the division leading Broncos. Denver also beat the Chiefs in their first of two meetings this season, downing Kansas City in the Mile High City two weeks ago, 22-19.
In other words, things just don’t look like they could get any better for the Sean Payton coached Broncos.
I think that is true, and you know what usually happens to a team when things can’t get better? They get worse.
While Denver has gained as many or more wins versus every team in the NFL except the New England Patriots, who have ten victories in their first dozen games, the Broncos have had trouble beating point spreads against the weakest teams they have played. Denver was a point spread loser to the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. Those four teams do not equal the number of wins the Broncos have this year. For the record, the Titans, Jets, Giants and Raiders have a combined won/loss mark of 7 and 38.
Why do the Broncos have so much trouble beating the number when playing inferior opponents?
Part design and part confidence.
Payton is an experienced head coach, in his years with the New Orleans Saints he consistently landed in the postseason and beat Peyton Manning and Company in Super Bowl XLIV. He has the maturity of knowing the object is to win the game, not blow out your opponents. Teams that run up the score in the regular season are consistently early outs in the playoffs.
Second, the Broncos team is anchored by their rock-solid stop unit which puts their offense, led by Bo Nix, on notice to avoid mistakes that compromise their defensive strength.
Finally, the Broncos youthful success has them ready to play their most talented opposition, among their nine wins are victories over the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans and aforementioned Kansas City Chiefs, but not “up” for games against less respected squads.
Tonight, they meet the struggling Washington Commanders and are favored by six points on the road. These two teams, the Broncos and Commanders, were the surprise teams of last season while coming from the bottom of their division standings to playoff berths. This year, the Commanders have had the more common cycle for teams that have breakthrough years after losing seasons, that is a down year.
The Broncos, conversely, have followed up their run to the postseason last year with another successful campaign for Payton and his troops.
But now, after beating the Chiefs two Sundays ago, the Broncos spent their bye week which allowed them two weeks to celebrate their dramatic take-down of Patrick Mahomes and company. Next week they return to division play with a home game against the Las Vegas Raiders, which makes this road trip and game against Washington a perfect spot for the Broncos to once again struggle against an inferior opponent.
The only difference in this game from their four losing point spread efforts but straight up wins over the Titans, Jets, Giants and Raiders, is that they likely lose this one straight-up.
Qoxhi Picks: Washington Commanders (+6) over Denver Broncos